July was a surprisingly good month for global markets, with the economic recovery remaining a work in progress.
There are, however, plenty of pessimists saying that this will not last, although with the VIX at 13.9 - far below its long-term average - there are also the optimists who think we on for a soft landing.
What is clear is inflation has been tamed, at least for the time being. The US inflationary figure is back down to a more manageable 3% - the lowest since March 2021. Even the UK figures were better than expected, which in June stood at 5.9%.
Economic data, however, remains weak. This is the real stumbling block, particularly in the UK and the eurozone, where Goldman Sachs cut its regional forecast.
There are though a few patches of blue, particularly in the US, which has shown surprising resilience. However, China's PMI data continues to disappoint. So much rests on China's stimulus packages, which have consisted of too much talk rather than tangible walk - plenty of managers are positioning their portfolios for a regional recovery, but first need to see government support.
The Fed's direction is crucial - every step moves markets. July was always going to see a rate rise after the previous pause, so little suprise there. There is certainly caution but there are dovish undertones - they can afford to be with Fed rates at a 22-year high.
Similarly, the most recent ECB rise takes their rates to the highest-ever level.
This gives central banks wiggle room, which they have not had since they started loosening monetary policy all those years ago.
While these are unlikely to be the final rate rises, the narrative is that these are the closing moves in this stage, and the market is lapping it up - hence the languid VIX.
This gave equities a healthy tailwind in July, which were also helped with some decent corporate earnings. The S&P 500 closed the month up 3.1% and is now up almost 20% for the year-to-date, while the Nasdaq was up 4.1% for the month and 37% for the year. In comparison, the FTSE 100 was up 2.2% in July, DAX up 1.9% and the Nikkei flat.
The oil market had its best month for over a year as markets tightened and the US dollar weakened. WTI closed the month up 15.6% and Brent up 14.2%. Gold and Silver likewise bounced, with gold up 4.4% and silver 8.8%.
GBP was the best-performing G10 currency, up more than 1% against the USD and slightly up against the EUR.