Significant shifts in global geopolitics marked December, alongside all things Trump….

Unsurprisingly, November was all about Trump's return, policies, and influence on crypto.

Many of the same macro forces that impacted September rolled into October, with war and election concerns being the main drivers of global markets.  

There were some very big macro stories dominating this month. 

Describing the markets in August as a rollercoaster ride may be a cliché, but it accurately captures the month's dramatic swings.

July started with interest rates driving the narrative, and then it was politics and the Paris Olympics.

June was a month dominated by mucky politics and interest rate divergence. 

May markets were driven by central bank ambiguity and, arguably, Nvidia.

April was an 'ugly' month for markets, with various macro forces at play. 

March proved a particularly good month for markets as central banks played ball. For once, there were few negative surprises. The threat of recession has become a secondary concern nowadays.

With so much interest focused on inflation coming down and the timing of interest rate cuts, the health of the European and UK economies has been largely forgotten.

We maintain our sceptical belief that we will see dramatic rate cuts this year. There are still too many unknowns, with the US rebounding, Europe stumbling, and an increasingly real possibility of Trump pt II later this year - arguably, the biggest unknown.

It is always good to end a year on a high and in global financial markets, the tide has turned, at least for the time being, with the Fed not discouraging conversations about an interest rate pivot.

November saw the Fed, ECB and Bank of England keep interest rates steady, but this has not stopped the rumour mill. The market is increasingly pricing in 2024 Fed rate cuts.

October was a volatile cocktail of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. These were, and continue to be, exceptionally anxious times and nervy markets.

On balance, September was a month when the hawks took charge, confidence fell and equity markets took a hit.

August was about China's slowdown, US rate rises potentially 'peaking' and crypto being back on the rollercoaster.

July was a surprisingly good month for global markets, with the economic recovery remaining a work in progress.

General disinterest in the markets, a lack of confidence amid mixed economic signals and yet equity markets rallied.

In May, there was no escaping the market turmoil. For once, it was not inflation. Instead, it was the US debt ceiling and poor data.