November Market Review
November was all about Trump's return, his aggressive policies, controversial appointments and his influence on crypto markets, which encouraged a very healthy US rally. Importantly, in Trump's mind, everybody was talking about him.
To the liberal elites' chagrin, the US electorate demonstrated that they wanted a tough-talking, strong leader and re-elected Trump, regardless of indictments, impeachments and other accusations. Within seconds, we know that he is going to implement non-US tariffs, hit immigration hard, have a bureaucracy bonfire and get American oil to flow.
Trump's nominations have surprised markets, although, to be fair, anything he says or does should not surprise markets (this is, after all, the second time around—or as Scaramucci puts it, this is The Apprentice, the White House edition, part II). Whether these names get through the Senate remains to be seen.
US markets lapped it up. We are witnessing an unapologetic pro-US business and pro-US growth president, and US equities and crypto soared upwards while the ROW gets a ringside seat. The transition is well underway, with inauguration on 20 January.
With more to come, China reacted with a $1.4 trillion stimulus package to soften any anti-China moves, but this has failed to appease the markets; whether Trump's rhetoric is meaningful or more nuanced remains to be seen...
In Europe, governments were quickly reversing their previous anti-Trump rhetoric as they tried to rebuild their burnt bridges. Meanwhile, in Germany, the economy imploded as Scholz's coalition collapsed.
European and US equity markets had a good month, with the US enjoying a Trump bump. The S&P 500 closed the month +5.7% and the Nasdaq +6.2%. Those stocks associated with Trump outperformed, with Elon Musk's Tesla +38.2% and Peter Thiel's Palantir +60.1%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 was +2.2% and the Dax +2.9%. Asia was more mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index +1.4% and the Nikkei 225 -2.2%.
Oil was down as markets digested Trump's promise to get drilling and add more oil to the current surplus. By month-end, WTI was -1.8% and Brent -2.1%. Gold and silver were also down, driven by the Trump victory, with gold -2.55% and silver -5.2%. More broadly, a standout move was coffee prices, which were at a record high in nearly 50 years on tightening supplies.
With the Trump administration set to be crypto-friendly (and news that anti-crypto SEC chair Gary Gensler is standing down on 20 January), bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies soared during the month, with the $100,000 firmly in the crosshairs. By the end of the month,
Currencies were again about the Trump trade and the strong USD, with the Euro in particular impacted and concerns about what Trump means for the eurozone economy.