There were fewer economic surprises in April, and yet markets proved underwhelming. Financial data and risk appetite was flat, with investors sitting on the sidelines, but there also appears to be a lack of concern, with the VIX sitting at a multi-year low…

While most equity markets recovered their losses, for long periods, they teetered on the brink…

On the face of it, not a great deal changed in February. If anything, economic data marginally strengthened and yet markets became increasingly skittish on central bank concerns.

January saw softer inflation numbers and increasingly positive data from key western economies. The recovery hangs in the balance, but there is rather less talk about the imminent global recession.

This was yet another disappointing month in what has been a disappointing year. Investors largely sat on their hands, worried about taking on too much risk…

Inflation may be temporarily tamed, resulting in increasingly dovish central bank noises, but one slip and it will be a nasty risk-off. There is complacency in the air, which is dangerous.

Not even Nostradamus could have predicted what went on in October, given the wild swings, politically and financially.

With the summer very much over, unless something material changes it is downhill to a particularly nasty global recession, with the UK skirting ever closer.

For large parts of August, investor risk appetite was relatively muted as players stayed out of the market, waiting to hear what US Fed Chair Jerome Powell had to say on 26 August.

On the face of it, there appeared to be little change during the month of July compared to June, yet these proved to be very different months.

Last month we wrote about red flags, well those flags were raised even higher in June.

There were so many red flags out in May that it was difficult to know which way to turn.

April was largely about war, global slowdown, China lockdown and Fed rate hikes.

Ukraine, Russia, China and the Fed…

February markets were dominated by the tragic events in Ukraine.

January was a difficult month on many different levels. Geopolitically, tensions ratcheted up in the Ukraine, and on the economic front, it was all about inflation and rate rises.

2021 may have been dominated by Covid, yet markets continued to hit new highs and we saw M&A activities go through the roof, but we also saw the Fed starting to rein in the excess.